A Map Of Where El Niño Will Strike Around The World

Ria Misra
21 May 2014

The map is the work of NOAA and is by no means a prediction or promise of how this year's El Niño might fall, or even if there will be one at all. What it does do, however, is give an overview of how researchers have observed El Niño altering precipitation patterns around the world since 1950.

As you can see, some areas are likely to be prone to the heavy rains, storms, and flooding that we often associate with El Niño. But other areas could experience unusual dryness, perhaps even drought.

Image: NOAA

World Bank Report: THE PRACTICE OF RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES IN LARGERSCALE AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS

THE PRACTICE OF RESPONSIBLE INVESTMENT PRINCIPLES IN LARGERSCALE AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENTS.

Implications for Corporate Performance and
Impact on Local Communities
WORLD BANK REPORT NUMBER 86175-GLB

April 2014

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 Sector related to "Angkor Rice", Chapter 4, Page 33.

BOX 4.9: Technology Transfer in Rice Contract Farming

One investor in Cambodia had developed a rice contract farming system whereby the company supplied improved fragrant rice-planting materials to farmer groups. An average farmer cultivated about one to 1.5 hectares of fragrant rice, using rice seeds provided by the investor. After retaining part of the harvest for their own consumption, the farmer sold all production to the investor. The investor agreed to buy all the production from the farmers at market prices and provided a guaranteed minimum price as an assurance to farmers. The rice from the contract farms was milled at the investor’s rice mill and the final product is sold in the national market (about 80 percent) or exported.

The investor provided technical support and training to contract farmers on the appropriate techniques for rice cultivation. Farmers were given training on the use of proper agricultural practices such as scheduling of various field operations (for example, ploughing, planting), optimal planting densities, nonuse of chemical fertilizers and pesticides, and so on. Extension service staff visited farmers during the growing season and provided advice on how to address any problems observed during the visit, for example, on how to overcome attacks by insect pests. Participants in this scheme noted the higher yields resulting from the better quality seed inputs and technical support provided by the investor. The working relationship between farmers and the investor was perceived as positive by both parties.


Source: UNCTAD-World Bank Survey of Responsible Agricultural Investment Database.

Here comes El Niño: Recent spike in sea temperatures raise fears that a 'significant' weather event is on its way

•     Experts have spotted a spike in Pacific Ocean sea temperatures
•     This, coupled with the rapid movement of warm water eastwards, has increased concerns about an upcoming El Niño event
•     El Niño affects wind patterns and can trigger both floods and drought
•     Researchers said rises in temperature are above those seen in recent years
•     This suggests the 2014 El Niño could be one of the strongest for decades
•     In January, experts predicted a 'substantial' rise in extreme El Niño events
•     An unusually strong El Niño event occurs every 20 years, but this new research shows this will double to one event every 10 years

By Victoria Woollaston

Dalymail

Published: 10:55 GMT, 5 May 2014 | Updated: 14:57 GMT, 5 May 2014

A spike in Pacific Ocean sea temperatures and the rapid movement of warm water eastwards have increased fears that this year's El Niño could be one of the strongest yet.
El Niño - a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific - affects wind patterns and can trigger both floods and drought in different parts of the globe.
Although previous research has suggested extreme El Niño events could occur later this year, experts claim this recent rise hints they are likely to be more significant than first thought.

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A spike in Pacific Ocean sea temperatures and the rapid movement of warm water eastwards have increased fears this year's El Niño could be one of the strongest yet. El Niño, pictured left, is a warming of sea temperatures that can trigger floods and droughts. La Niña, pictured right, is when sea temperatures drop

WHAT IS EL NINO?

El Niño refers to a set of conditions when the surface of the sea in an area along the Equator in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean becomes hotter than usual.
The average water temperature in that area is typically between 1 and 3°C (approximately 2 and 5°F) warmer than normal during this event.
This has the effect of adding huge amounts of heat and moisture into the atmosphere, ultimately affecting patterns of air pressure and rainfall across the Pacific and globally.
Strong El Niño events occur every 20 years or so, but researchers recently said this could drop to 10 years thanks to global warming.
At the opposite end of the scale, La Niña is the climatological counterpart to El Niño.
La Niña refers to periods when sea-surface temperatures around the Equator are cooler than normal.
This has a similar affect on air pressure and rainfall because it suppresses how much heat and moisture enters the atmosphere. 

Dr Wenju Cai, a climate expert at Australia's Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, said the rises in Pacific Ocean temperature were above those seen in previous El Niño years.
‘I think this event has lots of characteristics with a strong El Niño,’ said Cai.

 

‘A strong El Nino appears early and we have seen this event over the last couple of months, which is unusual; the wind that has caused the warming is quite large and there is what we call the pre-conditioned effects, where you must have a lot of heat already in the system to have a big El Niño event.’
He based his conclusions on studying data released by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
A majority of weather forecasting models indicate that the phenomenon may develop around the middle of the year, but it was too early to assess its likely strength, the U.N. World Meteorological Organization said on 15 April.
Meteorologists added the prospect of an El Niño will likely be firmed up 'in the next month or two', although forecasting its strength will be hard to do.
The chance of an it developing in 2014 exceeded 70 per cent according to Australia's Bureau of Meteorology.

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The worst El Niño on record in 1997 to 1998 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river, pictured, that killed over 1,500 people. Australian climate experts claim the recent rises in sea temperature are above those seen in previous El Niño years and suggest this year's events will be 'significant'

Its weather bureau is expected to issue its next El Niño outlook report on Tuesday, while Japan's meteorological agency is expected to updated its forecast in the next couple of weeks.
The worst El Niño on record in 1997 and 1998 was blamed for massive flooding along China's Yangtze river, responsible for killing more than 1,500 people.

The impact of extreme El Niño events is felt by every continent, and the event in 1997 cost between $35billion to $45billion in damage globally.
A strong El Niño also increases fears that production of many key agricultural commodities in Asia and Australia will suffer.

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Strong El Niño events occur every 20 years or so, but researchers recently said this could drop to 10 years thanks to global warming. Here, the village of Puerto Maldonado, Peru, is seen flooded in January 2003 as a result of El Niño rains, which drove 16,000 people from their homes

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The impact of this year's El Niño events is expected to be felt by every continent. During the 1997 to 1998 events, damages were said to have been in the region of between $35billion to $45billion. Beachfront homes in Malibu, California, pictured, collapsed after two weeks of high surf under El Niño weather conditions

EXTREME EL NINO EVENTS

Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Niños, which first appear in the western Pacific.
The extreme events occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
This different location for the origin of the temperature increase causes massive changes in global rainfall patterns.
The new patterns result in flash floods and torrential rain in some places and devastating droughts and wild fires in others.
Extreme El Niño events are expected to double in frequency over the next 100 years.
The impact of extreme El Niño events is felt by every continent.

In January, a team of international scientists said extreme weather events fuelled by unusually strong El Niños are expected to double over the next century.
Climate scientists warned countries could be struck by devastating droughts, wild fires and dramatic foods approximately every ten years.
The team, made up of experts from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (CoECSS), the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and CSIRO, also  spotted a link between global warming and extreme El Niño events.
‘We currently experience an unusually strong El Niño event every 20 years. Our research shows this will double to one event every 10 years,’ said Agus Santoso of CoECSS, who co-authored the study.
‘El Niño events are a multi-dimensional problem and only now are we starting to understand better how they respond to global warming,’ he added.
Extreme El Niño events develop differently from standard El Niños, which first appear in the western Pacific.
The extreme events occur when sea surface temperatures exceeding 28°C develop in the normally cold and dry eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.

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Scientists in Germany recently said they can forecast disruptive El Niño events a year in advance. They hope the forecast will help countries develop better strategies to counter the effects such as wild fires, pictured in the Philippines. Meteorologists said the prospect of a 2014 El Niño will be firmed up 'in the next month or two'

This different location for the origin of the temperature increase causes massive changes in global rainfall patterns, which result in floods and torrential rain in some places and devastating droughts and wild fires in others.
The impacts of extreme El Niño events that extended to every continent across the globe in 1997, for example, killed around 23,000 people.
Dr Cai continued: ‘During an extreme El Niño event countries in the western Pacific, such as Australia and Indonesia, experienced devastating droughts and wild fires, while catastrophic floods occurred in the eastern equatorial region of Ecuador and northern Peru.’

In Australia, the drought and dry conditions caused by the 1982 and 1983 extreme El Niño led to the Ash Wednesday Bushfire in southeast Australia, which resulted in 75 deaths.

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The scientists examined 20 climate models to simulate major rainfall reorganisation during extreme El Niño events. This satellite image shows the El Nino weather phenomena in 1997, represented by the the white area at the equator, which shows how the warm waters stretch from Peru to Alaska

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2620504/Here-comes-El-Ni-o-Recent-spike-sea-temperatures-increase-fears-significant-weather-event-way.html#ixzz30tUr8NUR
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